Miner Flows/Indicators

Entry into Miner flow/indicator

Reason to look for Miner flows/indicator

Looking into Miner's cost-benefit model with BTC price

The time point for their selling or even buying provides valuable insights generated from miner's perspective.

Miners spend their money in mining that comes with electricity or maintenance cost which makes them the only entity that follows a typical business model. They are forcibly required to sell some of their mined BTC to cover the costs. This business structure naturally exposes some of reasons behind miner's behavior. For example,

1) If they sold their BTC regularly with unusually big amount, it could indicate that Miners are selling at over-valued BTC price.

2) If they start to buy BTC instead of collecting fiats to pay for their costs, it could indicate that BTC is under-valued leading the miners to postpone their selling and trying to benefit from the under-valued BTC price.

Thus, looking at the behavior pattern of miners could provide investors with market insight that took cost-benefit model of miners into account

How to look at indicators

This section identifies the look out point for individual indicators. These indicators could be divided by their identity and the usefulness in trading. Each data tracks each feature of miners and put together, they cover multiple aspects and capture movements in miners relatively precisely.

If you want to make use of exchange data by figuring out

1) How many coins came out from miners

Checking the outflow from miners

2) How many coins are withdrawn from miners to the exchange

Checking the flow into the exchange is a great way to keep track of coins that could be sold from miners

3) To look out if most of the miners are selling BTC

Due to covering their cost, it is normal for miners to sell their BTC but if most of miners are selling, it could indicate a future price drop or provide top signal

It is wise to take a look at each indicator according to the number stated above.

Points to be aware

Just like any flow data, all the outflow from miners doesn't indicate immediate selling

Firm belief in correlation to outflow from miner with price drop will not always be correct because there are several reasons miner send their BTC to other address.

1) Just an internal wallet transfer

2) Sending their BTC to sell in the future

3) Possibility of re-sending BTC to their own wallet from exchange

There is also a possibility where miners predicted or wrongfully valued BTC.

Even though miners know the cost to generating BTC, their prediction of future BTC price could be wrong and inferring their movement with future BTC price might be misleading. For example, miner's selling does not necessarily mean a price top and their buys doesn't correlate to bottom price with BTC all the time.

In addition, there are other factors to consider such as the market competitor relation with new-old miners affecting their unexpected cost and recovering cost time preference might differ from halving to halving or by different with miner pools.

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